Monday, July 08, 2013

Military Coup in Egypt

Some information about Egypt that is often missed by Christians.

  • Egypt is controlled by the leaders of the military forces. This has been the situation since 1956, when the king was toppled by a military coup. They have often ruled through civilian puppets that are well controlled.

  • President Murabak was put in place by the generals, but he had been in power so long, he had forgotten where he had come from and was trying to start a dynasty by establishing his son as his successor. The generals did not want that to happen, because they did not want to lose their grip on the political process, so they were not disappointed when he fell from power.

  • The generals believed they could control the Moslem Brotherhood. They were happy for them to be the civilian government because they thought they could maintain the stability needed for their business to prosper, but they were worried that their US benefactors might be offended.

  • The lower ranks of the army are made up of conscripts from the humble classes. The people feel like the military represents them, because there brothers and sons serve in it. In contrast, the security forces are hated.

  • The military controls nearly 40 percent of the economy. They own and operate huge factories that produce electronics and consumer goods. Their construction companies build highways, housing developments, hotels and telecommunications facilities. They own factory farms producing milk and farming chicken and fish. Some of the work is done by poorly paid military conscripts.

  • Private businesses find it almost impossible to compete with military-owned businesses. When they are not in direct competition, the military uses its power to clip the ticket at every opportunity.

  • The military leaders enjoy a privileged life. They live a pampered existence in special developments where they can buy condominiums and luxurious apartments for at subsidised prices with cheap credit. The military leaders pretend to care for the nation, but their main political objective is to protect this privilege.

  • The Moslem Brotherhood was totally unprepared for running a government. Their skills were in social support programmes. They have been outsmarted by entrenched political powers loyal to the military.

  • Although the Morsi government had won an election, their power was limited. It had no control over the military budget, so they generals could carry on doing what they liked.

  • The $1.3 billion aid given by the US government goes directly to the military. The Morsi government had no control over it.

  • The military forces gets the some very effective weapons from the US, but they are only allowed a very limited supply of ammunition. This gives toys for the officers and the ability to control the people, but no capacity to fight a war.

  • The Morsi government could not control the police and security forces, so they were unable implement their policies. The police and security forces went on strike in March to demand better conditions and the resignation of the Interior Minister appointed by the new government. They have been off the streets since then, which allowed crime to soar and causing massive insecurity.

  • Most of the judges had been appointed by the Murabak government, so they obstructed all the decisions of the Morsi government. The nullified the lower house of parliament, although it was democratically elected.

  • The Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt is quite a conservative group. They may have been radical fifty years ago, but they have grown old under persecution. They are not the Taliban of Egypt. They focused on providing social services, rather than on radical activities. This is the reason for their popularity.

  • The Salafist movement is far more radical than the Moslem Brotherhood. The Salafists generally supported the Al Nour party, which got less votes in the election than the Freedom and Justice party of the Moslem Brotherhood led by Morsi.

  • Al Nour, which advocates sharia law, won 30% of the vote in the parliamentary elections, so it expected to have influence in the government. The Morsi government was stuck in the middle. It needed the political support of Al Nour, but if it adopted Islamic practice to satisfy Al Nour, it alienated the more secular parts of the population.

  • The driver of the Arab Spring was really economic. Egypt has 25 million people aged between 15 and 29. Many of them are unemployed.

  • Egypt cannot produce enough food to feed its people. During the Murabak era, the United states shopped surplus wheat to Egypt at a 50 percent discount. When the Moslem Brotherhood was elected, the discounts stopped and bread prices doubled, causing huge pain for the poor.

  • After the revolution, tourism to Egypt tanked. This has severely damaged small family businesses. The recent disruption will make the situation worse.

  • The weakness of the economy makes Egypt almost impossible to govern. Very few economies in the modern world have been able to create enough jobs to absorb the new generation of youth. The military dominated Egyptian economy is incapable of absorbing it massive youth bulge.

  • When Moslem leaders are forced into exile, they often up in France. They learnt their economic in Paris, which is bastion of socialism. When they get return home and get into government, they implement socialist solutions, which create a weak economy. (This was true of Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran, too)

  • Modern people all over the world have an expectation that their governments can create economic growth and full employment. The Egyptian people have the same expectation, but it will be disappointed.

  • Young people in Egypt can see the good life on television and want freedom to live it, but they also want jobs, so they can afford to live it. No government could create sufficient jobs to fulfil their dreams, especially a socialist one.

  • Millions of young people in Cairo are unemployed, so they can easily join a protest for several days. There is evidence that some of the protests were organised by the security services.

  • Egyptian society is very divided, but civil war is unlikely. The Military leaders have too much at stake, and they hold the power, so they will not let it happen.

  • We will see rapid turnover of governments in Egypt. The people will go onto the streets when they are disappointed in the latest showing, and the military will put someone else in to have a try. If this goes on for several years, the army might lose control, and the red horse might be released.

I do not believe in democracy. It is a immoral and a lie. I am intrigued at how quickly Western governments who push democracy as the ideal government ignore it, when elections produce results they do not like. It confirms that they are more committed in power and control, which is what democracy is.


Anonymous said...

Thank you for your insight. I went back and read your writing on democracy and really stopped and made me re-consider a lot of ideas I had.

August said...

You speak the truth.