Ukraine Outcome

As expected, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have failed. Volodymyr Zelensky is a puppet leader controlled by hardline ultra-nationalists, so he cannot agree to any agreement that looks like surrender, even though his forces are being beaten. NATO leaders are encouraging him to keep going, but this is a mistake, as the longer he keeps fighting, the worse will be the outcome for the Ukranian people.

The Ukrainian people have backed the wrong horse. Ukraine will join the long list of nations that have been abandoned after putting its trust in promises of US support. The outcome will be ugly.

• The Ukrainian army is already defeated, and cannot win, even with American support. Trump’s attempts to establish peace in Ukraine will eventually fail.

• If Volodymyr Zelenskyy signs up to a peace agreement, he will be destroyed by the ultra-nationalists and oligarchs who control him.

• Ukrainian forces fighting against Russia will flee west and attempt to destroy him.

• American attempts to fly in Valery Zaluzny or some other leader more amenable to the West will fail, as these efforts always fail. A worse person usually rises in the place of the person who was supposed to be a safe alternative.

The longer the war goes on the worse the situation will become for Ukraine. Once the Ukrainian defence collapses and the war ends, the situation could deteriorate rapidly.

• The Ukranian population will continue to collapse. 20 million Ukrainians have migrated and most will not return. The birth rate has collapsed. In 2024, 495,000 Ukrainians died while 176,000 were born.

• Fleeing soldiers will return home without their pay or any financial support. Many will have to go overseas to serve as mercenaries to earn a living.

• Without US funding, the Ukrainian bureaucracy will not be able to pay staff and many good jobs will disappear.

• Most Ukrainian industry has been destroyed, so employment will become scarce.

• Government services will cease as funding collapses.

• The massive weight of debt will cause the economy to collapse and civil society to break down.

• Numerous disappointed Ukrainians will migrate to Western Europe looking for work opportunities.

• Ukrainians who fought in the war will feel betrayed by their leaders and the people who have lived in comfort in Western Ukraine.

• Civil disruption will become widespread.

• A massive rebuild will be needed, but Europe and then the US will be unwilling to fund it.

• Eastern Ukraine will be rebuilt with Russian and Chinese support.

• The political struggle for power in Ukraine will continue.

• The ultra-nationalists and oligarchs who have been ripping off Ukraine will seize control and civil strife will break out in Kiev.

• European leaders will be embarrassed when it becomes obvious that they have been supporting ultra-nationalists and oligarchs with nazi sympathies.

• Europe will become absorbed in its own economic problems as it is weakened by disunity. It will lose interest in supporting Ukraine.

• The security guarantees of NATO and its promises of support have been exposed as useless.

• Without NATO holding it together, Europe will fragment into disunity.

• Tariff wars will undermine the EU, leading to more fragmentation.

• Europe has lost its soul, and will go into sharp decline, unless a real Hitler emerges in France or Germany.

For background comments on this issue, see Russia and Ukraine.

Zelensky and Ukraine

I published this piece in December 2022. It is probably becoming more relevant now.

Zelensky has not acted with truthfulness and integrity
His lies will be exposed
A bad spirit will come between Zelensky and the western news media.
When they realise that he has duped them
They will be filled with scorn,
They will turn on him and attack him with a vengeance.

They will accuse him of doing the things
that he has accused his enemies of doing.
His false accusations will turn back on his head,
and he will lose his place.

A bad spirit will come between Zelensky and his people.
When they realise that he has lied to them,
making false promises that he cannot deliver
and used their men as cannon fodder for no benefit,
destroying their country
and wrecking their economy,
while stealing their wealth.
They will hate him, and he will lose his place.

The battle has been heavy but he did not acknowledge it
so something bad will close in on them.
Some of the soldiers whom he betrayed
will be so angry
that they return to Kiev to destroy him.

Ukraine will be given into the hands of the people who have plundered them.
The oligarchs and ultra-nationalist who rule the country will be exposed
when they openly seize control.
Their true character will be revealed.
God will surrender them in the hands of the nation they hate
His hand will be against them
so they cannot stand against it.
Things will go badly for them
as they come under intense pressure.

Western military and political leaders
will be embarrassed when they realise
who they have been supporting
and will turn against them with a vengeance.
They will break faith with each other,
and blame each other for their failures.

OT Prophets

I am currently reading through Kings and Chronicles and am constantly amazed at the achievements of some of the Old Testament prophets, given that the Holy Spirit still had not been released to move freely on earth. This morning, I read the account in 2 Chronicles 28 of one called Oded. Most Christians will not have heard of his name, but he was an incredible peacemaker.

As so often happened, the Ahaz king of Judah and his people had forgotten about God and worshipped idols. Ahaz even offered one of his children as a sacrifice in accordance with the way of the surrounding nations.

When the King of Aram attacked Judah, the King of Israel joined in and killed 120,000 Judeans in one day. He also took 200,000 Judeans captive and was marching them back to Samaria to be slaves.

The bible does not explain where he came from, but a prophet of Yahweh came out to the returning army and confronted the King of Israel. He explained that Yahweh had allowed them to defeat the Kingdom of Judah, but now they were going over the top and going beyond what Yahweh would allow. Oded said,

With you yourselves there are only liabilities in relation to Yahweh your God, aren’t there? So now listen to me. Give back the captives you've taken from your brothers (2 Chron 28:10-11).

Some of the people of Samaria heard the words of the prophet and pushed back against the army, repeating his words.

You will not bring the captives here, because it will be a liability upon us in relation to Yahweh. You’re saying you’ll add to our wrongdoings and to our liabilities, because our liability is great (2 Chron 28:13).

The armed men received the word and let their captives go. And abandoned their plunder. Designated people came and served the captives from the spoil. They clothed them, gave them boots, and food and drink. They put those who had collapsed onto donkeys and led them. They returned all the captured people to the plain of Jericho, so they could return to their homes. Then they went home.

This is the only event in Oded’s life that is recorded in the Bible, yet it is an amazing achievement. He was able to receive God’s word and declare it boldly to people who needed to hear it. Speaking to people who have been victorious is always risky, but Oded was able to follow the Spirit’s leading and be in the right place at the right time. And because he obeyed God, his word was effective, and changed history.

These days, in the age of the Spirit, many Christians call themselves prophets, but I can't think of many who could do what Oded managed to do for God. Even though God has poured his Spirit out at Pentecost, I can't think of many American prophets who could confront Donald Trump or Benjamin Netanyahu and say, “You are increasing our liability to God. Stop doing harm and put things right”.

Prophets of the Night

According to the file properties I wroted this in March 2023. I did not share it at the time, because it seemed too soon. I might still be ahead of myself.

The dawn of day is coming
but the night must come first (Isaiah 21:12).
Because the people of God are so unprepared,
the night will be much longer and darker than many expect.

It is good for watchers to share about the light of the dawning,
because it gives people hope.
But if they don’t warn about the darkness of the night that comes first,
it will be a false hope.

Many prophets know that God needs his church to change
They are talking about a big paradigm shift
in a season of restructuring;
a metamorphosis from one shape to another;
but they don’t seem to know the detail of the change he needs.

The church urgently needs more guidance about what he requires.
People are praying for revival,
begging God to move by his Spirit,
but God is not the problem,
because his spirit is always moving.

The problem is the church.
It does not seem to be willing to make the changes
that God needs it to make
before it can carry the revival that he wants to send.

The church is celebrating
as if the dawn has arrived.
but the current model of doing church is inadequate
because it cannot cope with the darkness of the night;
Reliance on personality pastors (or their sons)
and programs in buildings
will not be viable during the darkness that is coming.
And the current model will not even cut it when the light of dawn comes,
because it cannot carry the Kingdom of God.

There is a time to laugh and dance,
but also a time to weep and mourn.
The twilight is a time for weeping, mourning and seeking.
Continuing to celebrate as if victory is being won
is discouraging for an army that is being overwhelmed
by forces that are stronger.

God is calling prophets of the night
who can prepare God’s people for the long darkness
that we must pass through to get to the dawn of the new day.

Some of the changes he requires will be painful.
If we don’t make them now in the twilight,
we will have to do it during the darkness of the night.
The changes will be the same,
but they will be hugely more traumatic during the darkness.

Climate Science

I think that it is dangerous for Christians to announce that they know what science is saying because they have found a scientist that supports their point of view. Some scientists are popular with Christians because they like what they are saying, but that does not mean that it is true. Cherry-picking a scientist whose message you like and assuming that you have arrived at the truth is a dangerous game. We don’t get to the truth just by listening to voices that we like.

I get nervous about scientists on both sides of the climate change debate who are excessively certain about their claims. I really worry about those who mock other scientists by saying "they don’t get it". I prefer scientists who are a little bit humble.

The climate is far more complicated than most scientists realise. Their models are often too restrictive to represent the climate accurately. If their models were fully reliable, they would be able to predict what the climate will be like a year ahead, but they can’t, so I presume their models are not that accurate. Therefore, we should take the claims on both sides of the debate with a grain of salt.

Christians should be careful about saying to people that climate change is true or not true. The reality is that we don’t know. Rather they should be seeking the wisdom of God about how we should live in this season. If we get his wisdom, we will be prepared for the future, regardless of what happens to the climate.

The climate change advocates have exaggerated the situation over many years (presumably to scare people into action) but that does not mean they are wrong about everything. They could be partly right, so we must not bury our heads in the sand.

One thing is certain. The economic development of the world and our use of fossil fuels to support rampant consumerism over the last 200 years has been a reckless and irresponsible use of the planet God gave to us. So, it would not be surprising if we have done serious harm to the climate.

My position about the climate is that we don’t know. I think it is foolish to say that the climate people are totally wrong. Nor will I panic about the future. But I do think that we must be more serious about living more simply and less materialistically in obedience to God.

More at Climate Change.

Romans 13

If your interpretation of Romans 13:1-5 would require you to submit to a ruler like Hitler, then there is something seriously wrong with it. You need a better interpretation.

See Understanding Romans 13.

Energy and Creation

My knowledge of the theory of relativity is very limited but the well-known equation E=MC2, (E=energy, M= Mass, and C= speed of light) gives insight into the structure of our universe.

An atom consists of a few electrons circulating around nuclei with the opposite charge. Both are so small that they cannot be seen and there is nothing between them, because they are repelled from each other by the opposite charge, it an atom is mostly energy.

When looking at the universe we see the mass of the stars and the planets. Therefore, the equation above is more informative, if the terms are re-arranged to highlight the nature of this mass, ie M=E/C2.

One explanation of the equation says that “Energy can be used to make mass out of nothing... except pure energy”. Of course, humans do not have sufficient energy to make anything significant, but God does.

The Mass of the universe is mostly formed from energy. Reality is nothing held apart to become something (with mass) by a massive amount of energy. This is why the smashing of a single atom of hydrogen releases a massive amount of energy.

So when God created the universe, he just released an enormous amount power in the energy need to form the created world out of nothing. The world is nothing pulled apart to become something huge. Millions of atoms were created by a massive infusion of energy. If in the equation above, M is the mass of the universe, then E must be massive too. God was able to release all that energy without any loss of power to himself.

In the same way, at the end of the age, God could just withdraw the energy/power that keeps the mass of the created world in place. It would instantly collapse back into nothing again. And when God receives the energy back, he will not be any greater, because he was able to give it at creation without being diminished in any way.

Modern scientists see a lumpy universe expanding rapidly and randomly to become the vast array of galaxies that can be seen with powerful telescopes.

I see the creation the other way around. The universe was a small lump of matter that God infused energy and power, causing it to grow rapidly, as he pushed matter apart creating the sun, the moon and the stars by inserting his power in the same way that yeast causes dough to bubble and grow.

The modern view is a massive explosion to become a random universe. The theological view is a massive expansion of matter to become orderly universe.

The modern scientific view begins with a massive concentration of energy, without any idea of where it came from. (Some suggest that this singularity might have come out the back of black hole.) This huge mass of energy explodes and expands out rapidly to form the visible universe. This expansion is randomly uneven, so stars and planets are formed in a random way.

God worked the other way around. He probably began by creating atoms by separating electrons from their nuclei with by inserting his energy. As matter formed he separated out lumps of matter by inserting more of his energy to form gaps between them.

As more and more energy was inserted the stars and planets we observe were formed. This was not a random process. Rather, God inserted his energy in a way that caused the stars planets to form in the way that he had intended. God stretched out the heavens in a controlled process that followed his design.

Richard Beck on Boredom

After discussing our feelings of arbitrariness in modernity -- making something matter in a world where nothing matters -- Dunnington goes on to discuss a second symptom of modernity's malaise: Boredom.

Because modernity lacks a telos, we don't have a Story that gives life purpose, direction and meaning. Any story we do have is the story we pick for ourselves, a story that can be dropped in an instant, making that story seem hollow and arbitrary.

You'd think that this would create a feeling of existential crisis for us. But as Dunnington points out, most moderns don't feel existential angst. What we tend to feel is bored.

But why argue that boredom a uniquely modern problem? Dunnington points to two things.

First, due to our material affluence modernity has increased our leisure time. That's no small accomplishment. However, and this is Dunnington's second point, modernity has accomplished this feat by eliminating our Story.

And these two things -- time without a telos -- create an existential vacuum. Space in our lives has been created -- leisure time -- but we lack a Story to fill that space with meaningful activity. Consequently, we fill our leisure time with entertainments and distractions. Again, this is situation perfectly suited to capitalism, large amounts of free time needing to be filled with products and activities for sale.

The trouble, we all know, is that after we cycle through all these entertainments we become increasingly bored. There's a million shows on TV and across our streaming platforms and we can't find anything to watch.

Addiction, according to Dunnington, cracks through the boredom by giving us something compelling to do. Addiction, if it's anything, is a motivated state, something that consumerism struggles to give us consistently.

Further, rather than facing a vast, undifferentiated sea of choices, addiction focuses life upon a single, unifying activity.

In short, addiction alleviates boredom in two different ways: Making something matter when nothing matters and making one thing matter in a sea of choices. When we're bored we have a million things we could do, but nothing we want to do. And if that's the experience of modernity, the experience of addiction is the exact opposite.

Addiction gives you a single, compelling thing to do. Once again, we see addiction filling in a void created by modernity and, thus, implicitly functioning as a form of social critique.

Here's Dunnington making these points:

Addiction provides a response to the underwhelming life of boredom that plagues the bourgeois in its leisure time by making one thing matter. And addiction provides a response to the overwhelming life of boredom that plagues the working class with the fragmented and compartmentalized striving by making one thing matter. For those who are bored with nothing to do, addiction stimulates by entangling and consuming; for those who are bored with too much to do, addiction disburdens by simplifying and clarifying.

If modern life is, by turns, underwhelming and overwhelming, addiction shows up as a solution.

From Richard Beck's Stubstack