Ukraine Outcome

As expected, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have failed. Volodymyr Zelensky is a puppet leader controlled by hardline ultra-nationalists, so he cannot agree to any agreement that looks like surrender, even though his forces are being beaten. NATO leaders are encouraging him to keep going, but this is a mistake, as the longer he keeps fighting, the worse will be the outcome for the Ukranian people.

The Ukrainian people have backed the wrong horse. Ukraine will join the long list of nations that have been abandoned after putting its trust in promises of US support. The outcome will be ugly.

• The Ukrainian army is already defeated, and cannot win, even with American support. Trump’s attempts to establish peace in Ukraine will eventually fail.

• If Volodymyr Zelenskyy signs up to a peace agreement, he will be destroyed by the ultra-nationalists and oligarchs who control him.

• Ukrainian forces fighting against Russia will flee west and attempt to destroy him.

• American attempts to fly in Valery Zaluzny or some other leader more amenable to the West will fail, as these efforts always fail. A worse person usually rises in the place of the person who was supposed to be a safe alternative.

The longer the war goes on the worse the situation will become for Ukraine. Once the Ukrainian defence collapses and the war ends, the situation could deteriorate rapidly.

• The Ukranian population will continue to collapse. 20 million Ukrainians have migrated and most will not return. The birth rate has collapsed. In 2024, 495,000 Ukrainians died while 176,000 were born.

• Fleeing soldiers will return home without their pay or any financial support. Many will have to go overseas to serve as mercenaries to earn a living.

• Without US funding, the Ukrainian bureaucracy will not be able to pay staff and many good jobs will disappear.

• Most Ukrainian industry has been destroyed, so employment will become scarce.

• Government services will cease as funding collapses.

• The massive weight of debt will cause the economy to collapse and civil society to break down.

• Numerous disappointed Ukrainians will migrate to Western Europe looking for work opportunities.

• Ukrainians who fought in the war will feel betrayed by their leaders and the people who have lived in comfort in Western Ukraine.

• Civil disruption will become widespread.

• A massive rebuild will be needed, but Europe and then the US will be unwilling to fund it.

• Eastern Ukraine will be rebuilt with Russian and Chinese support.

• The political struggle for power in Ukraine will continue.

• The ultra-nationalists and oligarchs who have been ripping off Ukraine will seize control and civil strife will break out in Kiev.

• European leaders will be embarrassed when it becomes obvious that they have been supporting ultra-nationalists and oligarchs with nazi sympathies.

• Europe will become absorbed in its own economic problems as it is weakened by disunity. It will lose interest in supporting Ukraine.

• The security guarantees of NATO and its promises of support have been exposed as useless.

• Without NATO holding it together, Europe will fragment into disunity.

• Tariff wars will undermine the EU, leading to more fragmentation.

• Europe has lost its soul, and will go into sharp decline, unless a real Hitler emerges in France or Germany.

For background comments on this issue, see Russia and Ukraine.