Stress Test

When the Covid19 lockdowns began, some prophetic Christians declared that this was a season of reset and the church would be transformed. At the time, I wrote in an article called Church Reset that I doubted this would happen.

I sense that despite the call for a reset, most Christian leaders are only interested in tweaking the existing church model. I do not detect an appetite for serious change, even amongst followers who “like” prophetic posts.

Recently my fears were confirmed. The lockdown finished in New Zealand about a month ago. On a wet cold Sunday, two weeks ago, I watched five different televised church services in a row to see what had happened. The pastors were delighted to be back at the front of their church preaching, but nothing had really changed. They said that were glad that things were getting back to normal (not a new normal).

One pastor announced a message on radical community, but then preached that people who had left the church should return. He said this would be hard and implied that the people who had left were the ones who had fallen out with people in the church. This did not seem like radical community to me.

What has been evident from the shutdown is that the modern church operating model is not viable in a quite mild crisis. The modern approach to discipling by watching a concert-style service worship service and listening to a weekly sermon by a pastor proved to be unsustainable during the Covid19 lockdown. Pastors quite quickly got their messages on to social media to fill the gap, but many of their people did not bother listening to them. No wonder they were glad to be back in their pulpits, despite this being an inadequate method of discipling.

Banks do stress tests to establish if they have enough capital to get them through different types of crises. I see the shutdown as a stress test for churches. Unfortunately, this stress test showed that many churches could not cope with a crisis that brought really serious pressure.

The government of New Zealand probably has less Christian influence now than at any time in the nation’s history. This gives the spiritual powers of evil more sway in here than they have ever had before. The Covid19 crisis is not their best efforts. They are flexing their muscles and have worse evil in mind for the nation. One of their next tricks might be persecution of churches that take a strong stand on the big four social issues during the next election campaign.

The political and spiritual situation in New Zealand has changed significantly for the worst, and there is no obvious path back. However, the church is totally unprepared for this new situation. The pastor-centric, building-dependent operating model adopted by the modern church is incredibly vulnerable to either an economic crisis or state persecution. The lockdown has been a wake-up call that put the church to sleep at a time when it should be preparing for what lies ahead.

Having lost the battle for the heart of the nation, the church should be preparing to be effective during the crises that will inevitably follow. An operating model that lost the battle during the best times ever is not adequate for a season of darkness. Hankering for the good times to return again, so we can do better next time is not a solution. The church should be equipped for victory, but prepared for distress.

I explain how to get ready at Prepare and at Church Reset.

Crisis Budget

Modern governments offer a full-service salvation. They have to commit to doing more than previous governments in order to get elected. All political parties have played this game, and it has gained resonance as faith in God has declined. Consequently, governments are now expected to solve every human problem, including supporting businesses when they face a crisis, and providing work of people who have lost their jobs.

The problem is that there are significant limits on what governments can do. They cannot create real jobs. In the 1970s, the NZ government tried to deal with unemployment by making the Post Office and the Railways to take on extra staff, but this resulted in bloated inefficient organisations with more staff than they could use.

Governments have the power to make people do things that they do not want to do, but that is not much help in an economic crisis. They can take money from some people and give it to others, but that is not very helpful either. Governments can set interest rates low, so it is easy for businesses to borrow, but during a crisis, additional debt is not usually the solution. The other thing governments can do is borrow money without limits, and spend it.

Given these limits, I was interested to see how the current NZ government would respond to the coronavirus crisis when it presented its annual budget last week. A budget is a presentation of the government’s plans expressed in financial terms. And there is a huge expectation that the government will deal with every problem that worries people. (I was going to say that the expectation is unfair, but the politicians have encouraged it, so it probably is fair).

The problem is that politicians are ordinary people just like you and I. Some are really clever, while others are plodders who got where they are by being in the right place. They are skilled in managing the political process and communicating it (not an easy task) but they are not skilled in solving economic problems. And they always protect their power, because they know that when it is lost, it is almost impossible to recover it. So they have to pretend that they know what they are doing even if when they don't.

Unfortunately, politicians do not have the wisdom of God. They don’t have the wisdom needed to solve all the economic problems the economy currently faces. I feel sorry for them because they do not have the wisdom and knowledge to do everything they have promised to do, especially during a crisis.

The Minister of Finance is a career politician. Politics is what he has always done, so he is not an expert on economics or crisis solving. He got the role because it is a powerful position and he missed out on the roles that would normally fall to the deputy leader of the winning party, due to coalition compromises.

Government leaders can get economic advice, from the government bureaucracy that has been put in place to support them. Unfortunately, the people who work in these departments are just ordinary people, too. Some are very clever, but many are mediocre. Most want to do what is right, but they also care about promotion and advancing their career.

Commentators who probably know have said that the skill level in the departments that are responsible for the economy has declined in recent years. The is probably true. Once people in the public service used to stay in one area for many years and become experts in their field. That rarely happens these days. People work in an area until they are competent and then rotate to another area of work. They find that this is the best way to get promoted, but it means that there are very few highly skilled experts left in the core government departments.

The reality is that the government and their economic advisors do not know how to resolve the current economic crisis. There is no textbook they can look up, or expert they can call, to find out how to do it. The truth is that no one knows what to do in a crisis like this one, so governments tend to revert to doing what they have always done.

They can look at crises in the past to see what was done then, but they were different, and many of the government plans to resolve them were not that successful. During the Great Depression of the 1930s, some government actions made the situation worse, and it took a war to get things going, so that is not a helpful example. During the Global Financial Crisis, governments around the world spent billions trying to resolve the problem, but the recovery was weak and sluggish and many of the causes are still causing problems. In each case, the politicians claim that the situation would have been worse, if they had not acted, but there is no way of knowing if this is true.

As I expected, the budget turned out to be the best efforts of a government committed to full-service salvation, but without a clear understanding of what to do. They do not know how to resolve the current economic crisis, so they chose to do what governments have always done: borrow billions and spend it on various projects they hope might work. When the money is all gone, I suspect that we will look back and wonder where it all went.

The restoration of the economy will actually come through creative and innovative people identifying new opportunities and creating new businesses to meet the opportunities they perceive. It will be assisted by existing businesses identifying openings or gaps in the market, and expanding to meet needs that people have. How quickly that can do that will depend on how smart and innovative the people of the nation are. Rather than expecting governments to rescue us, the people of the nation should be looking to lead the recovery themselves. Time will tell if we are up to it.

Expecting a godlike government to deliver us from all our troubles is a mistake.

God Will Protect?

A few days ago, I was emailed a copy of a prophetic warning by Joh W Matutis of Berlin Germany. He warns of terrible times coming on the earth that will cause the people of the world to be paralysed with fear. However he promises that God will protect his people. This is just one of several warnings in this vein that are currently being circulated among Christians.

These warning appear to be genuine, but I notice something really important missing from most of these words. They promise that God will protect his people, but say nothing about how Christians should be getting prepared. The underlying assumption is that physical protection is supernatural and that Christians will be protected, whatever their state of preparedness.

The scriptures teach something quite different. Protection is sometimes supernatural. God protected Elisha by blinding the eyes of the blinded the eyes of an army that was attacking Israel (2 Kings 6:17-20). God used the ravens to feed Elijah during a drought (1 Kings 17:2-6). Peter had a miraculous escape from prison (Acts 12:7-10). However, protection was more normally provided through relationships with other believers who had prepared for the tough times that lay ahead. Here are some examples,

• Noah’s family was protected by building an ark.

• Joseph protected his family from famine, by buying surplus grain during the good years when it was cheap.

• David was protected from persecution by the distressed and discontented men who joined him at the cave of Adullam and became his mighty men (1 Sam 22:1-2).

• Obadiah kept a hundred prophets safe during Jezebel’s persecution (1 Kings 18:4).

• Jeremiah was protected and rescued by his friend Ebed-Melech the Cushite, a man with influence at the court (Jer 38:7-13).

• Jesus gained protection by being surrounded by twelve fairly handy disciples.

• Jesus always sent his disciples out in pairs.

• Jesus received financial support from several wealthy female disciples (Mk 15:41).

• Paul was protected by the disciples who lowered him from the wall of Damascus in a basket (Acts (9:23-25).

• When Paul was stoned and left for dead outside Lystra, some discples came to his aid and restored him (Acts 14:19-20).

• Christians in Thessalonica helped Paul and Silas escape to Berea (Acts 17:10).

The message is clear. God will sometimes provide supernatural protection for his people. However, protection will more often come through other believers. Three factors are essential for protection:

1. Strong relationships with other believers.
2. Getting prepared by wise use of the resources that are available during the good times.
3. Believers in positions of influence.

We should be thinking about how we can use relationships, resources and influence to provide protection for themselves and others.

Real physical protection comes through relationships and connections with other believers, but most modern Christians persist in living in relative isolation. We only meet with other Christians when they drive to church on Sunday. Some participate in midweek meetings, but most drive to these as well. If vehicle travel were to be restricted, most of us would be quite isolated.

I see an enormous disconnect in most Christian thinking. Christians seem to like the idea of the world being judged, but very few have done anything to prepare for living through the disasters and troubles that judgment would bring. They have not thought about how they can prepare to support other Christians in trouble, or reach out with generosity to unbelievers who are struggling. Most Christians seem to assume that God will protect them, so they do not need to do anything to prepare for living through a time of crisis.

There will be times in the future when we will need God’s supernatural protection. I am certain that he will come through for those who trust him, just as he has done in the past. But just assuming that we can count on him to protect us supernaturally is really presumptuous, if we are unwilling to build the relationships that we need to protected from evil.

The latest economic crisis has added to the complacency, as many are thinking “I came through that crisis unscathed, so I can cope with anything”. The reality is quite different. If the half of the events currently being prophesied were to occur, many Christians and most churches would be totally wiped out. I suspect that many of the events being prophesied will not happen, because God will hold them back, because he cannot risk the enormous damage that they would do to an unprepared church.

Scanning the Christian bulletin boards, I see two types of prophecy. There are plenty of prophecies warning of judgment and troubled times. There are almost as many telling Christians that they will fine. One important element seems to be missing. I am looking for more prophecies that:

• Challenge Christians to get prepared for what lies ahead
• Explain to Christians how to get prepared.

An example is The Ambush, which gives a similar warning, but challenges Christians to get prepared and explains what should be done. Where are the men of Issachar, who understand the times and know what God’s people should do(1 Chronicles 12:32)?

I have written elsewhere about God will Provide. He sometimes provides supernaturally, but more often he provides through hard work and the generosity of other Christians. The same is true of the promise that God will Protect.

For more see Preparing for Social Collapse.

Preparation for Crisis (6) - Apostles and Deacons

Deacons will develop strong networks between those with plenty and those in need. This is a division of labour. People with business skills may be good at producing surplus wealth, but lack the compassion and patience needed assist poor people struggling to get back on the right road. Deacons will be specialists in helping poor people how to manage their lives better. The body of Christ will be stronger if deacons can focus on doing their calling, with others providing resources for them to distribute. Barnabas handed his surplus wealth over to the deacons to hand out, so that he could get on with his ministry as an apostle (Acts 4:26-37: 6:1-6).

During a crisis, deacons with lots of contacts will take the responsibility for building networks between town and country. They will facilitate the flow of food from the country into the city. They will also ensure that the Christians growing food in the country get the resources they need to support their ministry.

Another role of the deacon is to identify people with skills put them in touch with those who need word done. If an auto mechanic is unemployed, the deacons will link him with people that need their cars repaired. They will also make sure that the giving flows back the other way, so the mechanic’s family does not starve.

If apostles have been sent out to establish new churches, they will have links with Christians in other regions. Paul was able to link the Macedonian Christians who lived in plenty with their brothers and sisters facing famine in Jerusalem. These links and relationships will be really important for ensuring that food flows from the country to the city and arranging for the Christian farmer to get his tractor repaired by the mechanic who lives in the city.

Releasing apostles into their ministry might be the best way to prepare for economic crisis. Developing the ministry of the deacon is probably the best way to prepare for social decline.

Preparation for Crisis (5) - Sharing Skills

Returning to subsistence makes an economic crisis worse. Whatever the situation, we should try to keep the division of labour going as much as possible. Sharing skills is a good way to capture the benefits of specialisation. Each Christian should think about their skills and identify ways to bless other people in their community. These skills might not the same as they exercise in their calling or their paid employment. The prophet might have skills in repair electrical equipment. The accountant might have repaired old cars as a hobby. In some situations these skills might be more valuable do their community than what they usually do.

Christian leaders should look out for people with skills that their community might need. Networks that link needs with skills will be really important for the well being of a community. If we cannot buy new automobiles, we might need to keep older ones going for longer. The person getting their car repaired might not have money to pay the person repairing there cars, but they might be able to deliver vegetables to those who are suffering. Each person should be encouraged to use their skills to bless the rest of their community.

Some skills that are now redundant might become more valuable. These days very people bake their own bread, because it is not economic to put energy into making something that can be bought so cheap at a store. If the economic system really collapsed, bread might be hard to buy. Bread-making skills would be really valuable. People with skills in repairing electrical appliances .and vehicles might suddenly find they have plenty of friends.

A person who loses their job might be tempted to plunge into self-sufficiency by growing their own food. That might be sensible, if they are skilled at gardening and know people who would enjoy the surplus vegetables, but for most people gardening may be totally inappropriate. Each person should find ways to benefit their community doing tasks that utilise their skills. Not everyone is a gardener and man cannot live on vegetables alone.

Preparation for Crisis (4) - Networks and Relationships

When a financial or social crisis causes trade to collapse, networks and relationships will have an important role in ensuring that goods and services flow from those who are skilled at producing them to the people who have the greatest need. This presents an amazing opportunity for God’s people. We are experts at relationships. We should have strong networks with other Christians. We should be really experienced at giving and sharing. If Christians get prepared, they should be able to lead the way in the giving and sharing that will enable people to survive through difficult times. Every Christian should thinking about what they can be share with others.

During an economic crisis, there will be plenty of Christians living in the country who are skilled at producing food, so there will be no shortage of food. However, the collapse in trade may make it more difficult for people in the city to buy the food that they need. City Christians might need to share fuel and other resources with those growing food in the country. Sharing between Christians living in the country and Christians living in the cities should ensure that food is provided to those who need it. Christians with strong networks will have an important role organising the flow of surplus food from the country to the city.

City people will also need to share among themselves. If we cannot buy new appliances, we might need to get better at sharing what we have. People with plenty might give clothing to those with none. The owners of vehicles might provide transport for those who need to travel.

Over the last century, Christians have entered into the modern suburban lifestyle with the same enthusiasm as the rest of the world. This works fine when markets are operating effectively. People can live wherever they choose, because the market brings everything they need to them. If they want to meet with other believers, they jump in the car.

If Christians believe that the market will collapse in the future, they should think more strategically about where they live. Giving and sharing will be much easier for people who live in close proximity to each other. In troubled times, isolation in suburbia might mean separation from those who can care and share with us. If the economic crisis affects supplies of fuel, the cheap transport that sustains life in suburbia might disappear. Sharing transport will much easier for Christians who live closer to other Christians.

Preparation for Crisis (3) - Economic Impact

At the economic level the main impact of an economic crisis will be a reduction in the division of labour. Trade will become more difficult, which will reduce the level of specialisation. New Zealand may not be able to afford to import so many autos, computers and flat screen television. A decline in the volume of trade and in the degree of specialisation will make us all worse off, but it does not mean we have to return to self-sufficiency and subsistence.

Whatever happens, we should maintain as much division of labour as possible. When trade gets more difficult, we might need to shift to sharing to get the benefits of specialisation, but we should not return to subsistence unless that is the only alternative. Sharing can strengthen the division of labour when trade weakens it. A return to self-sufficiency should not be necessary, if people have learnt how to share.