Thursday, August 20, 2009

The Devil You Know

I have just finished reading The Devil You Know by Robert Bauer. He is not a trendy liberal, but and ex CIA agent who has spent a lot of time in the Middle East, so he has to be taken seriously.

He makes several interesting points.

  1. Iran is now the most powerful nation in the Middle East. It has already won the struggle for dominance and is on the verge of becoming a superpower.

  2. Iran does not need nuclear weapons. While America has been bogged down in pointless adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran has already achieved dominance in much of the Middle East using much more subtle methods. They understand the methods of asymmetrical warfare and have used them effectively.

  3. Sunni Islam is far more unstable than Shia Islam. Sunni Islam has no clerical group that controls the interpretation of the Koran. Any Sunni Moslem can make his own interpretation and issue a fatwa. Shia Islam has a strong clerical establishment that controls the interpretation of the Koran.

  4. Sunni Islam has several nihilistic streams that are happy to employ mindless violence, even if they destroy themselves in the process. They will lash out in quite random ways. In contrast, the Shiite clerical establishment that holds sway in Iran are much more deliberate in they way that they fight. Iran can be ruthless in the use of violence, but in a much more calculated way to achieve particular purposes.

  5. America has backed the wrong horse in the Middle East. They have allied with Saudi Arabia, the weakest and most unstable country in the Middle East. The US has supplied the Saudis with billions of dollars worth of sophisticated weapons. When the immoral and corrupt Saudi princes get their deserts, these weapons will be turned against American interests.

  6. Iran will soon control the Holy Places of Islam at Mecca and Medina that are currently controlled by the Saudis.

  7. America does not have the military capability to defeat Iran. It should negotiate now, before Iran gets stronger.

I found his view very interesting. In 1980, I wrote an article about Iran based on Daniel 8. I explained that Iran would become an increasingly powerful nation. It would advance north, south and west. Daniel’s prophecy is being fulfilled in our time.

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