Statistics (1) Independence

I have always considered that government statisticians have a prophetic role. They gather data and produce information that demonstrates how the government is performing. For example, if the government is manipulating or debasing its currency, the consumers price index will expose it. If a nation, or its government, has lost its blessing, it should be exposed by GDP statistics.

If statisticians are to undertake this role, they must be independent of the government that they are monitoring. While they will be dependent on the government for funding, they must have the freedom to design and produce statistical information without any political interference. They must be free to use the best possible statistical methods and techniques to produce information about the performance of their nation’s economy.

In New Zealand, the Statistics Act recognises the independence of the Government Statistician. The statistical agency has control over the statistical methods and techniques adopted for the production of national statistics. Down through the years, Statisticians have guarded this authority carefully. Most citizens assume that statistics are not subject to political interference.

Statisticians around the world have always wondered if the statistical agencies in the United States that produce economic statistics are fully independent. The directors of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), which produces employment measures, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which produces GDP measures and the National Accounts, and the Census Bureau, which operates business surveys that feed into the measurement of GDP, are all political appointees. This makes it harder for these statistical agencies to claim independence from political interference.

Now, Donald Trump has blown this issue up by firing the Director of the Bureau of Labour Statistics, claiming the jobs statistics she produced were biased, because she was a Biden appointee. He promised to appoint a director who would publish statistics that supported his view of the “beautiful economy”. This will make it very difficult for his appointee to produce independent statistics if they record bad news for the economy.