Statistics (3) Census

I see that Donald Trump has instructed the Census Bureau to undertake a new population census. According to the US Post-Enumeration Survey (PES), eight states were overcounted while six were undercounted in the 2020 population census. Trump is concerned that these discrepancies distorted representation in Congress, which is based on census numbers, but there are a couple of issues with his concern.

The biggest threat to the fairness of electoral district boundaries is gerrymandering. Successive governments from both parties have gerrymandered congressional districts to the extent that many never change hands. Introducing a fairer way to set boundaries would contribute more to fair elections than better population estimates.

The other problem is that conducting a census of the population is almost impossible in the modern world. I have explained the difficulties faced in New Zealand in a previous article.

The problems are worse in the United States, as two save money, the Census Bureau operates a postal collection for the population census. That only works well if the agency has up-to-date address lists for all citizens. However, that is not the case. When people move frequently, it is very difficult to maintain accurate address lists. Consequently, many census questionnaires are not delivered to the correct people. And if people don’t bother to post their census form back, getting a response from them is very expensive.

For these reasons, I would be surprised if Donald Trump will get a more accurate census than was achieved in 2020.