Liberal Hegemony (8) Future

John Mearsheimer believes that the season for Liberal Hegemony is over. I am not sure that he is correct. I suspect that the policy of Liberal Hegemony will continue to be popular in the United States.

• Mearsheimer says that the emergence of Russia and China as great powers will constrain American power. I doubt this is true. The Russian economy is about the same size as that of Italy. Despite irrational American fears, the Russian military spending is less than a tenth of the US spending, so it will never be a serious threat, comparable to the Soviet Union.

• If the Chinese economy continues to grow, it could become a threat to the United States. However, because the Chinese economy is built on unstable foundations, it could collapse and stagnate. More important, the Chinese seem to prefer spreading their business by migrating and buying businesses.

• The American economy is also fragile, being built on a foundation of debt and low-interest rates, but it is strong enough to fight two wars on the other side of the world at the same time, so it is unlikely that any other great power can constrain it.

• Many peripheral nations will side with the United States against China when they recognise their security is more important than the prosperity that comes through economic integration.

• American faith in military and power is still strong. It will take more than a few failed wars to shake that faith. The impetus to intervene in other countries will remain strong. Many American Christians would like to invade Iran.

• Many American Christians believe that God has called their nation to be the world’s policeman. They believe this is a burden that America must carry, even it becomes a heavy load.

• The Beast of Revelation is a liberal hegemon. For the United States to fulfil John’s vision, it will be around for longer yet.