War Hysteria

The current war hysteria is a western beat up. Boris and Biden are both sinking in the popularity polls and talking up threats of war is an old political trick for trying to regain lost support (It worked well for Georg W). When eventually nothing happens, because nothing will happen, they will claim that it was their bold response that prevented it from happening. But astute people will understand that their belligerence only demonstrates their weakness.

Russia already controls a bigger geographic area than most nations on earth, so Vladimir Putin has no interest in invading Ukraine. It is an economic basket case, riddled with neo-Nazis. Industries that supplied parts for Russian business have collapsed because the EU is not interested in buying from Ukraine. Those industries that have survived are controlled by oligarchs. Almost everything of value has already been sold by the bankrupt government.

The US organised a pro-Western coup in Ukraine in 2014, but has been unwilling to trade seriously with Ukraine and Europe has not provided the material aid that it needs to develop. All they will supply is weapons, which just makes the situation more unstable. If Russia was going to conquer Ukraine, it would have done it years ago, when Western powers were unprepared. Putin took back Crimea because Russia needs to have a warm-water port, and it was built by Russia in the first place.

Vladimir Putin does not need to invade another economic and ethnic basket case that needs propping up. He is quite happy to leave that problem to the Europeans who were so keen to gain influence in Ukraine. Only the Americans and the British still believe that war can be used to change nations for good. The Russians learnt the hard way that war does not work.

The only other thing that Putin wants is for the Americans to keep their missiles, which can carry nuclear weapons, out of Eastern Europe. This is sensible, as during a military confrontation, a missile fired from Poland or Ukraine can reach Moscow in about five minutes. That is not much time to determine if it carries nuclear warheads, and to decide if massive nuclear retaliation against Europe and the United States is required. The people of the West who will be the targets should want them to have more time to ponder their response too.