Conflict with China (6) Autocratic or Democratic

The Chinese people have a much greater tolerance for autocratic power than people in the West. President Xi is seen as an evil person by many western commentators but is well respected in China. This difference in views is the result of a different historical experience.

Chinese look back to the long period when they were ruled by the Qing and Ming dynasties as the greatest time in their history. When the Ming dynasty finally collapsed at the beginning of the twentieth century and democracy was introduced following invasion by the West, the outcome was fifty years of violent and destructive civil war that continued through the Japanese invasion. This bad experience has caused the people to fear democracy.

Fifty years of civil war and economic disruption only came to an end in 1949 after the triumph of the communist party, but actually continued for another 15 years during the Cultural Revolution when revolutionary powers were released again. Consequentially, the Chinese have an intense fear of civil insurrection, and want a government that will keep order and allow economic development. Confucian thought is still influential and supportive of centralised power to keep disorder under control.

Ironically, the United States people are beginning to tear themselves apart with political and social disruption, despite the belief that they have a superior form of government. Consequently, the Chinese have no aspirations to adopt the American style of government, especially one that is controlled by powerful billionaires to protect their interests. They see American efforts to support democratic movements in their nation as another attempt to invade their country and weaken Chinese society and its economy by encouraging internal struggles.

China has many serious faults and deep problems, as does the United States. None of them will be resolved by war, particularly a war betweem these two superpowers.

Conflict with China (5) Economic Power

The United States became a major economic power before it became a global military power. The nation did not need military dominance to become the strongest economy in the world. Its businesspeople achieved that through trade, investment and hard work. This economic strength made military dominance possible. Now, the massive military spending that the US wastes in futile attempts to maintain its position as a global hegemon has become a drag on the economy that it cannot afford. I presume the Chinese are smart enough not to make that mistake.

The Chinese have already become a major economic power without the need for military dominance. It is already close to being the largest economy in the world. Given that it has achieved that position without needing to become a military hegemon, I presume, that it will not need to seek that role to maintain its economic strength.

Chinese economic influence in the world will continue to grow significantly.

• China is becoming the largest economic market in the world, which will provide local support for developing industries.

• China is already the world leader in several high-tech industries. Chinese companies are highly-skilled in the production of IT-related products.

• China has a well-educated work force. It produces more graduates in maths, science and technology than any nation in the world.

• China is spending more on research and development than the United States. R&D in the United States is skewed towards military activities, which puts it at a disadvantage in general economic production.

• China is building transport infrastructure that links it with South Asia and Central Asia, which will expand its economic influence in the nations in the region. The United States has limited influence in these nations. It can park its aircraft carrier on either side of Asia, but it cannot prevent a growing flow of oil and trade across Asia.

Americans like to claim that globalisation has allowed the Chinese to steal their wealth. That is not true. Expanding economic trade makes most people better off because specialisation allows good and services to be produced more cheaply. The Americans who worked in the rust belt industries that could not compete have suffered, but most Americans are better off, because they have access to a huge range of cheap goods at Walmart.

That’s the way that international trade works. The people employed in industries that cannot compete effectively usually lose out, but everyone else is made better off because they gain access to cheaper goods and services.

Donald Trump is talking about decoupling from China and turning the United States into a manufacturing powerhouse. That is naïve. The United States simply does not have the people to be able to become self-sufficient and produce everything that people need. If the US does try to produce everything it consumes, the price of everything will go up, and most Americans will be made worse off.

The Chinese economy will most likely continue to be a powerful force in the world. Rather than hoping it will not happen, or trying to prevent it from happening, the United States needs to get used to the idea that the Chinese economy might become large than its own economy. That is not a bad thing. Free trade in which each country specialises in what it is good at will make people in both nations better off.

If American politicians continue to push for conflict with China, the smaller nations of the world will suffer. Because they are both nuclear powesr, China and United States are unlikely to go to war with each other. It is more likely that other nations will get caught in the crossfire of an unnecessary struggle.

There is plenty of room in the world for both the United States and China. They are on opposite sides of the earth, so there is no need for them to be treading on each others’ toes. There are plenty of less developed countries for them to invest in and trade with. The world does not need these two nations in conflict with each other.

Conflict with China (4) Trade or War

The Chinese have always been a trading nation. They seem to realise that trade is the best way to gain influence in the world and they are doing that effectively. The Chinese have taken a different approach to their neighbours. They have expanded their influence through trade and investment in infrastructure.

For New Zealand, China has become a far larger trading partner than the United States, at a time when the United States always seems to be trying to drag New Zealand into its stupid wars. The Chinese already have access to our production of milk, meat, and wool, so they don’t have a need to invade us, or threaten us with wars. Many other nations have discovered the same thing.

Nations tend to project their neuroses onto their enemies. The United States seems to be obsessed with military power and wants to use military force to impose economic dominance over the rest of the world. Not surprisingly they assume that Russia and the Chinese want to do the same to them.

American politicians to be worried that China will become the global military hegemon, pushing the United States from its place. However, history suggests the opposite. They don’t understand that the Chinese have always been more skilled at doing business than making war. They realise that they can gain more influence in the world by economic means than military means.

The United States has invested so much in military power over the last half century, and has such a massive lead in the size of its military power, that neither China nor Russia could ever catch up, even if they began devoting a much greater share of the economy into defence. The military dominance of the United State is unlikely to be superseded, even if the relative strength of its economy continues to decline.

The United States has an impregnable defence against China; the Pacific Ocean. Even for a superpower, it is virtually impossible to launch an invasion of one continent from another. It has never been done, so China is not a military threat to the United States. The fact that both nations have nuclear weapons means that neither nation could invade the other.

The British thought that they needed to establish a colonial empire to obtain the resources that they needed. The US has often tried to do the same, not by conquering directly, but organising coups to put friendly regimes in power. Since the Chinese economy is growing in strength, they assume that the Chinese will do the same as they did. However, assuming that others will behave the same way as you do is a serious mistake.

The Chinese government wants to protect its territory (including what is has lost) but it understands that it does not need to invade other countries to obtain access to their resources. They realise that seeking to invade another nations with military force is pointless, because it depletes wealth on both sides.

They know that it is better to develop trade and buy assets in the country that has resources they need. This provides better access to all the production of the other nation, without any military expenditure at all.

Conflict with China (3) Problem Repeated

Now the process of stirring up xenophobic fear seems to be happening all over again between the US and China. Again, we need a bit of history to get perspective.

China has never invaded the United States, but the United States has invaded China. During the gunboat crisis in the 19th century, the United States, the United Kingdom and France all invaded China to force them to open up their markets to Western exports. British merchants gained a monopoly of imports of opium into China, ie the British became the official drug dealer for China, which did terrible harm to Chinese society.

The invading armies from the West wrecked Chinese cities and looted wealth. They imposed trade regulations that hugely benefited the West and impoverished the Chinese. The British seized control of several Chinese cities, with US support.

The British and American people have forgotten these events, but the Chinese have not. They are determined not to let it happen again. That is why they are hostile to the US naval patrols in the South China Sea. Their strategy is “area denial”, which means keeping American aircraft carriers at arm’s length. They don’t want the United States being in a place where they could do it again.

The moral balance tilts one way, when we remember all the good stuff that we have done but forget everything bad that we have done, while focusing only on the bad that our enemies have done.

The Chinese have stolen some US technology, but they are just doing what they US did to them, and to others. Following the industrial revolution, British industrialists were upset because American businesses were stealing their technology. Ironically, American businesses are now complaining about the Chinese doing what they did to the British.

The Chinese have invaded Tibet, but they were just doing what the United states did when it advanced into the West and took control of the native people living there, or when America gained Texas and part of California from Mexico by force.

The Chinese government has many faults, but it has lifted a billion people out of poverty in a half a century. That has never been done before in human history, so we should be glad about that.

Conflict with China (2) Japan

Japan is another example of a “great fear” that got out of hand. In the First World War, Japan was allied with Britain and the United States. In the treaty imposed at the end of the war, the other allies were able to keep their colonies, but Japan was left with no reward for their efforts. Naturally, the Japanese were aggrieved and began to look for their own colonies. The other rich nations had colonies, so why shouldn’t they. (If the other nations had given up their colonies, the Japanese would not have had a grievance).

The outcome was an invasion of Manchuria, which had previously been controlled by China. Franklin Roosevelt had a strong interest in China, so he because increasingly hostile to Japanese colonial expansion, although it was no different from what the USA had done in the Philippines and other places.

Roosevelt imposed an oil embargo on Japan to enforce his will. The Japanese saw no alternative but to invade other nations further south in attempt to gain oil supplies. The confrontation eventually led to Pearl Harbour and an ugly war. The American history of Japan begins at Pearl Harbour, but the history of bullying and hypocrisy leading up to that event is ignored.

In a very short time, the Japanese went from being key allies to become the most evil people on earth. Soon everyone hated the Japanese intently. They were hated so much that it was easy to justify dropping two nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki killing thousands of civilians and many children.

Now the Japanese are allied to the West again. We have decided they are nice people, so we drive the cars they have made and watch television on screens they have produced.

This switch from ally to hated enemy and back again was unnecessary. It was the result of xenophobic fear stirred up in both nations for political reasons. With a bit of common sense, and much less stirring up of hatred, millions of deaths and a huge amount of suffering could have been avoided.

If the politicians who talked up this division had realised how much evil the conflict would produce and how many people would suffer and die, perhaps they would have been less belligerent and have sought for more pragmatic solutions.

Conflict with China (1) Great Game

I worry about the growing tension between the United States and China. Some politicians seem to be stirring up antagonism towards China for political benefits. Unfortunately, these hostile speeches often become self-fulfilling prophecies.

A little historical will help us keep things in perspective. The struggle between Britain and Russia was an interesting example.

From 1830 to 1895, the British and Russian empires schemed and plotted over control of Central and South Asia. At the heart of the “Great Game” was England’s certainty that the Russians had designs on India. So wars were fought, borders drawn, and generations of young people met death in desolate passes and lonely outposts.

In the end, it was all illusion. Russia never planned to challenge British rule in India and the bloody wars settled nothing, although the arbitrary borders and ethnic tensions stoked by colonialism’s strategy of divide and conquer live on today.

A large number of people were killed trying to assuage British fears of the Russians. Many modern problems arose out of bad British decisions during this time. The British created a buffer against Russia by splitting the Pashtun people between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and leaving some Central Asian peoples with them, which made Afghanistan an artificial country with the Hindu Kush dividing it through the middle. Pushing different peoples together into one country so the British could divide and rule is the reason why the nation is still unstable.

Nations seem to assume that other nations will do what they have done to them. The British invaded Russia twice, in 1854, and again in 1917, whereas the Russians have never invaded the UK. The Russians actually rescued the British from defeat on two different occasions, first from Napoleon in 1813, and from Germany in 1945. Yet the British still have an obsession with Russia and assume that the Russians want to invade them.