Tuesday, June 17, 2014


About three days late, the western media have caught up with events in Iraq. Many of the articles show maps of Iraq with numerous arrows going from West to East.

These reflect the current situation, but they do not reflect the longer term thrust of history in the Middle East. The real map has arrows going out from Iran, North South and West.

The biblical prophet Daniel received a vision for a long time into the future (Dan 8). He saw a two-horned Ram, standing beside a canal from the Euphrates River, and butting West, North and South. Daniel was told that this Ram is the Prince of Persia (Iran).

This vision has been being fulfilled since the Iranian revolution in 1978. The failure of Iraq war left a regime sympathetic to Iran in control of Iraq. The ISIS move from Syria west into Iraq will not stop the fulfilment of this vision. The Prince of Persia will continue to thrust West and South.

God has allowed the Prince of Persia to re-emerge to accomplish his purposes. The Beast of Revelation emerges in response to this powers shift. The Prince of Persia will also be a catalyst to the events that bring about the downfall of the Terrible Beast.

In the short term, the events will seriously change the geopolitical situation in the Middle East:
  1. The Iraqi army will struggle to retake much of the ground that has been lost, because ISIS has the support local Sunni communities. Some of the towns were actually taken by local Sunni militias, not ISIS.

  2. The Syrian government will not be able to recover territory taken by ISIS, now it has access to better weapons.

  3. US air strikes would be mostly a waste of time. This is an urban-based rebellion, so airstrikes would produce civilian casualties, which would strengthen support for ISIS.

  4. The ISIS rebellion may establish a new state straddling Eastern Syria and Western Iraq. This Islamic state will become a hotbed for terrorist activity and a thorn in the flesh for the nations of Europe, just across the Mediterranean Sea.

  5. The area controlled by the rebels is mostly desert and sparsely populated. However, it will be joined to Saudi Arabia, its financial sponsor. The people of the United States will wake up and realise that the Saudis are paymaster of violent groups all over the world.

  6. ISIS will not be able to conquer Baghdad and the Shia controlled areas of Iraq. The Shia militias that became very powerful during the Iraq war will get involved again to protect their interests.

  7. Most of the oil currently being pumped out of Iraq comes from oil fields in south of the country and goes out through the port of Basra, which are not threatened.

  8. The ISIS rebels will gain control of some of the oilfields around Mosul. Most of these are not currently producing oil and the pipelines out of the area are shut down. They might be able to develop them with Saudi help.

  9. The Kurds, who are well organised militarily, will move in and get control of many of the oil fields in northern Iraq. They have already taken the disputed city of Kirkuk, which gives them control of the super-giant oil field to the East of the city.

  10. The Iranian influence in Iraq will be strengthened by these events. The US will need Iranian help to constrain the ISIS movement, so will make and uneasy peace with Iran. Iraq could be smaller, but Iran will be stronger.

  11. These events will appear to be a victory for the Saudis, but will end in disaster for them. ISIS will eventually threaten the corrupt rulers of Saudi Arabia, with who they will have a common border.

  12. At some time in the future, the United States will decide that it has to invade the ISIS controlled region from the north, but this will make the situation worse.

    For the king of the North will muster another army, larger than the first; and after several years, he will advance with a huge army fully equipped (Dan 11:13)

1 comment:

Thinking Matters said...

A good synopses of a very difficult and tense situation Ron, however one I suspect that will be very unpopular in the West.