Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 04, 2025

Emmanuel Todd

Various political and religious commentators are drawing parallels between Donald Trump and Hitler’s Germany. Emmanuel Todd has a different take on this issue in a recent article. He argues that European institutions are becoming the real far-right, because they are out of touch with reality.

Monday, May 12, 2025

Donald Trump and Daniel (4) Broken and Discarded

Donald Trump will have a dazzling rise like a bright shining shooting star, but will fade quickly and disappear. After several fiascos resulting from the overuse of international power that he does not have, he will be broken by failure.

Donald Trump will discover that he has immense power over the federal bureaucracy (great power in the nation) but that his power to control the nations of the world has evaporated. Too many bad economic decisions and the failure of too many foolish international adventures will shatter him. Trump will be a broken man, destroyed by the shame of failure. Like Nebuchadnezzar, he will collapse at the peak of his power (Dan 4).

Trump will be pushed aside by the powerful men who surround him. His VP will probably pushed out too. He has empowered these men, but they will disempower him.

Broken Trump will be succeeded by a despicable person, who will use the power techniques that his predecessor has developed to exercise immense power and control over the American nation. People who are scared of Donald Trump will applaud his collapse and embrace his successor, but this is a mistake, because they will be deceived into welcoming their betrayer.

A despised person will stand in his place (Dan 11:21a).
The people who dislike Donald Trump will praise his successor, but they will be surprised when he lasts longer and uses the power that Donald Trump has released to develop immense executive power. He might seem to be good at first, but according to Daniel, he will be around for a long time and will do great evil.

Donald Trump will only last for a short time, but is important, because he will open the way for another ruler more successful. The second ruler will use the same methods as Donald Trump to massively expand presidential power. He will do far more harm, because his power will last much longer.

The ruler who replaces Donald Trump will be dishonest from the start.

A despised person will stand in his place, to whom they had not given the respect of the kingdom: but he will come without warning and seize the kingdom by intrigue (Dan 11:21).
When he gains his place, this ruler will not have the respect of many in his nation. Some will recognise that he will be a despicable person and assume that he will not gain power, but he will engage in intrigue and seize control of his nation.

Once he gains power, this ruler is successful against strong opposition.

The forces of the overwhelmer will be overwhelmed before him; they will be broken (Dan 11:22).
Stated literally, this verse says that "overwhelming forces will be overwhelmed". Or a deluge of forces will be deluged. There is no reference to the King of the South, so the expression "overwhelmer" could have a different more local meaning. A perceived threat to the United States at the current time is the millions of refugees from Latin America who are travelling through Mexico and sneaking across the southern border into the southern states. So many were coming that they have been "overwhelming" the border control forces. Associated with this overwhelming flood of people is a flow of illicit drugs that are destroying the youth of America.

To distract the people of his nation from the pain of his losses overseas, the despicable ruler might attack Mexico to once and for all close the border to the overwhelming flood of people who are crossing every night and the flow of drugs that are striking the heart of his nation. Daniel might be warning that Mexico will be broken when the United States invades to secure its border and overwhelming flow of people and drugs.

Daniel also explains that

A commander of the covenant will be destroyed (Dan 11:22).
The despicable ruler will destroy a key military leader in Israel.

The full series can be read on Substack.

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Donald Trump and Daniel (3) Limited Power

Donald Trump is not a good man, but he is arrogant and easily sidetracked, so he will not personally deliver as much harm as people fear. He loves power, but he does not have the wisdom needed to use it effectively. One reason he will fail is that he has vastly over-estimated his power over the nations of the world.

Trump’s big problem is that he understands presidential power, but he vastly over-estimates the power of the United States. He assumes that the nations of the world fear the military and economic power of his nation, but he does not understand that the nations no longer fear his nation’s power. He does not understand that American power is crumbling around him.

Donald Trump believes that he controls the greatest military in the world, but he forgets that the recent military efforts of his nation have ended in failure. The United States had to retreat from Afghanistan in embarrassment. The US proxy war against Russia is ending in defeat. The US efforts to subdue Yemen with a destructive bombing campaign has ended in an embarrassing failure (two F18s falling off an aircraft carrier is a sign). Too many unsuccessful military adventures and the economic boondoggles of the weapons industry have severely weakened the American military.

Donald Trump does not seem to understand that financialization and deliberate de-industrialisation by American financial leaders have massively undermined the strength of the US economy. America is no longer the great innovator. nor is it the world’s manufacturer. American industrial power has been destroyed along with many communities that depended on it. Imposing tariffs on imports will not instantly restore production in the United States. Donald Trump will not be able to restore US industrial strength, despite his many promises. A trade war may damage his perceived enemies, but it will also harm the United States.

Donald Trump has always been a bully. That worked in the business world that he came from because he could intimidate his opposition, while buying the support that he needed. He could use lawyers to do the bullying, while he pretended to be the nice guy coming to the rescue those they had beat down. Bullying might work against weaker nations, like Panama, Colombia, and perhaps even Mexico, Iran and Canada. However, when he tries to bully stronger nations like the UK, Germany, Russia and China, they will push back and he will have to make an embarrassing retreat.

Donald Trump’s attempts to bring peace in the Middle East will end in failure. Giving impunity to Israeli bullying will result in the destruction of thousands of lives. His support for Israeli bullying will undermine his credibility in the world when the ugliness of the Israeli heart is exposed. Trump will be accused of supporting and equipping a genocide in Gaza.

The blustering bully will be crippled by failure and disappointment.

Friday, May 09, 2025

Donald Trump and Daniel (2) Surprise

Many Christians are upset by the actions of Donald Trump’s presidency, but I believe that Donald Trump will burn out quickly. Unfortunately, the power he has accumulated will not disappear when moves from office, but will still be in place, waiting for a successor to pick it up.

The most dangerous thing that Donald Trump will do is show the way for a younger successor who will exercise immense executive authority to gain dictatorial power. The real danger for the nation and the world is not Donald Trump, but a successor, who will learn to use power in the same way as the Trump administration has been exercising it. His power will be greater, because he will hold it for much longer.

I have been studying Daniel 11 for several years as it seems to describe the season we are living through: the climax of government power. More detail can be found in All Whats Going On. If my interpretation of this chapter is correct, Daniel describes a strong ruler emerging in the western world following a series of tumultuous events. Donald Trump is a key person in a transition to autocratic power.

The ruler who precedes him became obsessed with the “borderlands” (Ukraine)

He will turn his attention to the coastlands and will seize many of them (Dan 11:18).
This is a good description of Joe Biden.
So he will turn his back face toward the strongholds in own land, but he will stumble and fall and not be found (Dan 11:19).
He stumbles and falls, and then disappears from the stage. This is what happened to President Biden.

Daniel describes the ruler who emerges in his place (Dan 11:20).

He stands in his place and sends an extractor of tribute for the glory of his kingdom (Dan 11:20a).
This ruler sends out a tax collector. There was no income tax in Daniel’s time, so kings raised money by levying tariffs and duties on trade and by imposing the payment of tribute on other kings. The tariffs on imports and the sanctions being imposed by the US on various nations could be a fulfilment of this prophecy.

The United States has imposed more sanctions and tariffs than any other nation. It has destroyed numerous nations using economic sanctions, including Syria, Iraq, Iran and Libya.

Daniel explains that this king engages in "trade war" for the “glory of his kingdom”. This sounds like “Make America Great Again”. Using tariffs and sanctions to restore American power points to the second term of President Donald Trump.

This transitional ruler is powerful, but Daniel explains that within a short time, he will be broken.

In a few years, he will be broken, yet not in anger or in battle (Dan 11:20b).
If this is a reference to Donald Trump, it suggests that he will have great power, but it will not last long. Daniel explains that he will rise fast, but fizzle out. He will be broken, but not by war or plague.

Many Christian leaders are concerned that Donald Trump is undermining democracy and will become a permanent dictator. The reality is that he is too old and lazy to become a dictator (wielding autocratic power is a young man’s game). I believe that he will not last long enough to become a real dictator. His administration has started with a hiss and a roar, but Trump does not have the energy to sustain it, especially when the opposition to policies builds up.

I will explain how this could happen in my next post.

Thursday, May 08, 2025

Donald Trump and Daniel (1) Source of Power

If we want to understand what is happening in the world, we need to understand the source of the immense power being exercised by Donald Trump. He is simply making very effective use the power that was accumulated by his predecessors.

Most recent presidents have struggled with power. GW Bush struck out in a war on terror, but his efforts failed. Barack Obama tried to bring change, he never mastered the power needed to bring change. Joe Biden was too intellectually deficient to control it; instead, his senior aides controlled him. Donald Trump was steam-rolled by the bureaucracy during his first term as president. The president of the United States has enormous power, but during most recent presidencies it has lain dormant and under-used.

Now Donald Trump has come back to the White House with a new understanding of presidential power and has gathered people around him who have worked out how power works. Trump is now using his executive power to accomplish his agenda (I don’t agree with much of his agenda, but this is not about that).

Many Christians are afraid of what is happening. Some say that Trump is evil. Others say that he is dictator. They might be partly right, but these ideas do not explain what is happening in the United States.

The reality that needs to be understood is that the US constitution and decisions by Congress give the president enormous powers that until now have not been fully used. Donald Trump has not had to discard the constitution to achieve massive power. Article II of the US Constitution says that “Executive power shall be vested in the President of the United States.” This gives the president control of the federal executive. This entrusted immense power to the president, especially at a time when the federal bureaucracy has grown very large.

In addition, political change has removed many of the constraints on presidential power established by the framers of the Constitution. They went to extraordinary lengths to achieve a dynamic, self-adjusting balance of power between three equal branches of government. In theory, the “executive” branch executes the will of Congress, as expressed through legislation that Congress alone can introduce and pass.

In practice, members of congress have handed much of their power over to the president. For example, the constitution gives congress control over taxes and appropriations, but it has largely abrogated this responsibility by passing omnibus spending bills that no one understands or controls. Congress also has the authority to declare wars, but it has also abrogated this authority by giving presidents a general authority to engage in wars.

Congress has given the president powers to act independently during an “emergency”. So by declaring a “fentanyl emergency” to be a public health emergency, Trump has been able to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico without Congressional approval. Trump and Biden both sent finance and weapons to Israel without congressional agreement using “emergency powers”. All that was necessary was for the Secretary of State to declare that it was an “emergency”. Rubio and Blinken both used this loophole. Congress is unlikely to take back the power that it has given to the presidency.

In 1977, Congress passed the International Emergency Economic Powers Act which grants the President broad authority to regulate international economic transactions following a declaration of a national emergency. This authority is triggered by a declaration of national emergency related to an unusual and extraordinary threat with a foreign source. Trump has declared that the US trade deficit is an emergency created by foreign actors taking advantage of the openness of the US economy. This gives him authority to apply tariffs and other controls on world trade without getting permission from the congress.

The Supreme Court is supposed to have independent control over the power of the president, but for most of the twentieth century, the courts supported changes that increased presidential power. The court has recently become more conservative, but it has very little to hold back presidential power. A few lower-court judges have attempted to put a hold on some of Trump’s executive orders, but it is quite likely that these attempts will be overturned on appeal.

Donald Trump is not seizing power illegally. He is just using the power that has been given to him by the Constitution and Congress, which previous presidents have not had the ability or energy to use effectively. Raising alarm at Donald Trump’s use of executive power is probably wasted energy, because the power that he is exercising was given to him by the constitution and the congress.

Vinnie Rotondaro explains how this has happened.

The central truth we keep missing — especially on the left — is that Trump is not an aberration. He’s a grotesque continuation. The playbook he uses was written by both parties over decades of eroding democratic norms, consolidating executive power, and circumventing meaningful checks on authority. Trump didn’t invent the impulse to rule by fiat; he just brings it out into the open.

If we want to stop the next Trump, or the next expansion of executive lawlessness, we can’t keep pretending he came out of nowhere. The removal of checks and balances didn’t happen overnight. It was built incrementally, piece by piece, under the banner of national security — with the cooperation and silence of the same liberal establishment that now acts scandalized by Trump’s every defiance.

Trump exposes the tools others helped create. He strips them of their moral veneer, revealing the ugly core. And rather than confront the system itself, liberals point at Trump as a singular villain — as if everything was working just fine before he came along.

The truth is harder to face: If we want to stop the next Trump, or the next expansion of executive lawlessness, we can’t keep pretending he came out of nowhere. We need to reckon with the fact that our democracy has been undermined from within — by both parties, for years. We need to challenge not just the man, but the machine.

I will explain why this is important in my next post.

Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Trump Cyrus

Some American prophetic leaders prophesied that Donald Trump would win the US presidential election in 2016, even though the news media were hostile to him. They believed that God would use him to turn the nation back, to make America great again and bring a revival to the church.

I suspect that his presidency was part of a God’s plan for the United States, but for a totally different reason. It was not a step back onto blessing, as Trump was not capable of making that happen. His presidency was more of a judgment on a church that has been distracted by political power and a nation that has forgotten God’s way. I believe that God allowed the United States to elect Donald Trump to expose the heart of the nation and the flawed faith of the church.

Looking back, we can see that that the Trump presidency has not bought peace and prosperity. Rather it has exposed how deeply divided the church, and the nation has become. The corruption of the political system (on both sides) has been brought into the light. The greed and perversity of the military and security services have been exposed. I suspect that some of the prophets intuitively understood this when they said that Trump would be a “disrupter” or a “wrecking ball”.

Some prophetic people have declared that Trump is a Cyrus. That might be true, but that is a strange thing to wish on a nation. Cyrus was not a man of God. He was a ruthless, violent ruler, who destroyed all opposition to his rule. He is not the type of person that most people would want to be ruled by. God used him to execute his judgment by destroying the Babylonian empire.

Cyrus did not establish the Kingdom of God (he could not do that). He did not bring a spiritual revival. Instead, he rapidly expanded his military and political power and went on to establish a massively-enlarged and more powerful empire. Therefore, if Donald Trump is Cyrus, most likely is role was either to bring judgment on a Babylonian empire (the United States?) or to establish a new dynasty of bombastic and corrupt leaders who will expand and grow the American Empire until it becomes the Beast of Revelation. It is not clear yet which way it will go.

Sunday, July 05, 2020

Normal America

Many American evangelicals are getting stirred up about President Trump. They think the nation that is being ruined by a highly abnormal president. They see the next presidential election as pivotal because they fear that the President has set the nation on a dangerous path from which it will struggle to recover.

The reality is that Donald Trump will be gone in four years’ time, and quite likely in six months’ time. I suspect that nothing much will change when he goes because he is a symptom of a problem, not the underlying problem itself. That problem has been there for a long time, so it will remain for a long time after he as gone.

Changing a president does not change a nation's behaviour, because the government-spirits that controlled the election of the president will still be in place when he is gone. The United States has been dominated by spirits of war and violence and power from its inception, partly because it was birthed out of war. These violent and warring spirits ensure that the nation elects a president who loves war and military dominance. If a peace-loving person like Obama is elected president, these spirits will transform him/her into a warmonger.

Donald Trump claimed that he would withdraw America from unnecessary wars, but he has not succeeded. The violent and warring spirits that control the nation have worked with the establishment to keep the nation involved in wars all over the world.

Donald Trump was not an aberration. He was a perfect choice for the government-spirits that control the United States. A brash bully is just what they wanted to lead an arrogant nation that they use to bully the other nations of the world.

Caitlin Johnston has a perceptive article, despite not understanding the spiritual powers behind what she observed. She says that “Donald Trump is a very normal US president”.

Trump is a very normal president, the media just yell about this president a lot more than usual because he puts an ugly face on the horrific normal that was already there. Sure he makes rude tweets and says dumb things and has made a mess of the pandemic response, but by and large when you strip away the narrative overlay Trump has been a reliable establishment lapdog advancing more or less all the same status quo imperialist and oligarchic agendas as the presidents who came before him. There are just a lot of establishment loyalists with a vested interest in spinning the ugliness his oafishness is exposing as caused by and unique to him.
If people could only open their eyes, the President is revealing the heart of the nation and the government spirits at work in it.
It isn’t Trump’s abnormality that makes him truly heinous, it’s his normality. It’s his perpetuation of a status quo which is brutal, corrupt, and utterly fascistic. And which got there long before he did.

Going back to how it was before Trump was elected is not the solution, because that was just as bad.

Wanting America to go back to how it was before Trump is wanting the conditions which gave rise to Trump. This is like landing at the bottom of a well and wishing you could go back in time to a few moments earlier when you were merely falling down the well. Wanting the same status quo austerity, exploitation, oppression and warmongering that made people so angry they wanted an obnoxious demagogue to come knock over the whole apple cart in the first place is just rewinding the same horror movie to the scene right before the scene that’s scaring you.

The only solution is real change.
This is what your government is, America. This is what it’s always been. If you don’t like what you’re seeing, don’t just try to put a nicer mask on it so you can go back to sleep. Change it. Change your normal. Create a new normal.

Trump is everything America is. As one reader recently put it, “Trump didn’t make things the way they are, he is the personification of the situation. If the United States was a suit, then it was tailor-made for Trump.”

Trump is normal. If you don’t like your normal, America, then push for real change, not cosmetic change. It’s not going to come from any president. It’s going to have to come from you.

That change will require a change of heart that frees it from the powerful government-spirit that controls it.

Saturday, August 11, 2018

Trade Wars

Donald Trump thinks like a businessman, when it comes to trade. One wins at the expense of another. This struggle between direct competitors is real. If another hotel chain lures away some regular patrons of Trump Hotel by undercutting the room rate, Trump Hotel loses. The other hotel chains win. If one building contractor undercuts another to get the contract to build Trump Towers, the former wins and the latter loses.

However, most trade does not work like that. Most other businesses are not direct competitors, but are suppliers and customers of each other. Trade between businesses that are suppliers and customers of each other benefit the entire community (while the few that are direct competitors win and lose against each other).

Donald Trump seems to take his win-lose business experience over into international trade. He assumes that if China has benefited, the US must have suffered. Consequently, he assumes that if he can make China lose, America will win again. This flawed thinking.

International trade is not a zero-sum game. All nations can benefit from an expansion of trade. When trade expands, a few suffer, but most people get richer. Expanded trade means bigger markets with more competition, with more specialisation, more choices, gains from scale, more innovation and more investment.

Businesses in different nations are good at doing different things. Nations have different resources, knowledge and skills. Trade between nations usually makes people better off.

It is true that the people of China who have moved from rural areas to work in manufacturing have benefited hugely from more open trade. However, many American businesses have made immense profits by getting their manufacturing done in China. People employed in dying American industries have suffered, but most Americans have benefited by being able to buy cheap consumer goods imported from China (phones and televisions) that they could not afford if they had to be manufactured in the United States.

Donald Trump assumes that America can win a trade war. Unfortunately, no nation wins a trade war. The problem is that all nations export and import. One nation’s imports are another nation’s imports. If a nation’s exports are reduced by trade sanctions, its capacity to import is goods and services is also constrained. This means that any change that limits a nation's exports also limits its ability to pay for the exports of other nations. Some smaller nations may be affected worse than others.

The American companies that are protected from competition by tariffs on imports will benefit. Those that have invested in manufacturing capacity overseas might lose. Many Americans will be worse off because they have to buy more than they consume.

Donald Trump believes that the US can win a trade war. That is mistaken. Everyone nation loses in a trade war. The best that Trump can hope for is to suffer less than other nations. Given that the US is a large market and depends on exports less than most nations, that could be the result.

But the fly in the ointment is that the US is running a massive budget deficit. In the past,, it has been able to fund this deficit by borrowing (selling treasury bills) from trading nations that needed US dollars for reserves. Most this funding from nations that Trump is fighting the trade war against. If a trade war goes too far, this source of cheap funding might disappear, with serious consequences. The US might lose more in a trade war than it expects./p>

The leaders of the EU, US, China and Canada are incredibly stubborn. I do not see any of them backing down. They are more likely to up the ante and get into a tit for tat struggle by the raising tariffs and imposing financial penalties. Each one hoping that one more hit will win if for them. This is what I call a trade war./p>

In a world that has not recovered from the GFC, but just papered over the cracks, that would be high risk. The US would be hurt the least, but it would be painful for the world.

Friday, July 20, 2018

Political Hysteria

I am disturbed by the hysteria in the news media and political circles about the Trump-Putin summit in Helskinki.

I am old enough to remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. I had just started high school. There was a heightened awareness of the dangers of nuclear war back then (families in the US were digging fallout shelters). I can still remember the fear that we felt, even far away in New Zealand.

The two nuclear powers, the United States and the Soviet Union were attempting to stare each other down, with the leader of each side threatening to launch their nuclear arsenal, if the other did not back down. No one knew who would blink and pull the trigger first. Confidential files that have been made public in the last few years show that the world was much closer to conflagration than we even realised at the time.

Fortunately, the two leaders, Nikita Khrushchev and John Kennedy were able to roll back the tension, and arrive at a solution, despite their political and military advisors wanting to amp the tension up. One reason they were able to do this was that they had met at a summit a year earlier in Vienna. I presume that they did not like each other, and they did not agree on much, but they did establish a working relationship that enabled them to resolve a crisis when this became necessary.

Therefore, I am amazed at the hysterical reaction of the western media and political leaders to the Putin-Trump summit in Helsinki. I think it is good that leaders of nuclear powers sit down and talk with each other. They don’t have to like each other, or trust each other, but dealing with a crisis can be much easier if they have got to know each other a bit.

The greatest threat to the world is still nuclear annihilation. We seem to have got used to it, but the risk has not gone away. Big wars start when the news media get hysterical and stir up political and military leaders. Rash actions are more likely when tension is high. The anti-Russian frenzy of the news media is creating hatred and anger that increases the risk that conflict between nuclear powers could get out of control. This is far more dangerous than any chat between two not-very-nice men in Helsinki.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Trade Wars

Donald Trump is angry about the US trade deficit. He blames manufacturing nations like China and Japan for ripping off America, so he is imposing tariffs on Chinese imports into the US to punish them.

Unfortunately, Donald Trump does not understand the economics of international trade, so he is attacking a symptom, rather than dealing with problem.

There are several reasons why the US has been running a trade deficit for many years.

  • The United States is a high-income country, (although many Americans are not feeling it.). High-income countries find it hard to compete with manufacturing from low-income countries. Multi-national countries tend to move their production to places in the world where educated labour is cheap. High-income countries have to concentrate on the highly-technical and capital-intensive manufacturing where they have an advantage. The United States has done well in this area, but it needs to do better because many blue-collar workers in the US are still directly competing with cheap labour in Asia.

  • Low oil prices and container have made the shipping of manufactured goods from Asia to the United States economic an economic activity.

  • The trade balance is only one part of the Balance of Payments, and they all interact with each other. The United States trade balance is the natural corollary to a surplus on the capital account.

  • The US dollar is the strongest currency in the world. Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, many nations in the world hold their international reserves in US dollars. They do this by purchasing US dollar assets, mostly treasury bonds. This inflow of funds has given the US a surplus on its capital account, which has to be balanced by a deficit on its current account. The trade deficit is the direct consequence of the US dollar role as a reserve currency.

    The big benefit of this role is that the US has been able to import cheap manufactured goods without paying for them. The US has been able to engage in numerous overseas wars without paying the full cost. (Wars affect the Balance of Payments in the same way as imports because stuff needs to be purchased overseas. The difference is that they are blown up, rather than carried into the US). Wars and imports have been paid for with bits of paper (mostly US treasury bonds).

    Buying things with bits of paper is good if you can get away with it. Donald Trump does not like the Chinese buying US treasury bonds, however if he wants to stop that practice, the US will have to start paying for all its imports and wars.

  • One reason why the US dollar is popular as a reserve currency is that oil is mostly traded in US dollars. Following a spike in oil prices in 1974 the United States persuaded Saudi Arabia to only sell oil for dollars. The U.S. agreed to buy oil from Saudi Arabia and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment. In return, the Saudis would plough billions of their petrodollar revenue back into Treasuries and finance America’s spending. This dollar hegemony worked well for the US, so it has attacked countries like Libya that tried to sell oil for currencies other than the US Dollar. The petrodollar is becoming less important as US dependence on Middle East oil. However, if the US lets it go, the need for US dollar reserves would decline and the trade balance would improve, but US economic hegemony would weaken. I am not sure that this is what Donald Trump wants.

  • The United States congress has consistently approved budgets that do not balance for many years. The ongoing budget deficits have to be paid for by issuing treasury bonds. If these were only sold within the United States, interest rates would have to rise significantly. No one wants that, so many of the treasury bonds are sold outside the United States with the Chinese being the main buyer. If the US balanced its budgets, the supply of treasury bonds would shrink dramatically, and the US surplus on its capital account would shrink too. This would have a positive effect on the trade deficit, but no US politician is interested in that solution.

The US trade deficit is mostly the result of decisions made within the US that have produced a surplus on the capital account. Without getting rid of that surplus, the trade deficit is likely to remain, whether or not Donald Trump engages in a trade war.

The Chinese may have manipulated their currency to make sure that they get their share of the US trade deficit. This does not harm the US. They benefit from the cheap televisions and refrigerators. Rather it harms other manufacturing/exporting countries (especially in Asia) that get squeezed out of the US market.

Friday, February 02, 2018

State of the Nation - Spiritual

Commenters are trying to find a pattern in Donald Trump’s policy decisions, but all they see is confusion.

Some foreign policy commenters are suggesting that Trump is disentangling the US from all foreign engagements. Others say that he is seeking to destroy international institutions that are not working for America. Others say that he is reasserting American military power.

Economic and political commentators are confused, because they cannot find a pattern to his economic and domestic policies.

The answer to their dilemma is that there is a pattern shaped by the spiritual powers of evil. The United States government is dominated by a cohort of political and government-spirits. Politicians come and go, but these spirits shape the exercise of political power, despite the promises and intentions of the politicians.

Once this is understood, the pattern to Trump’s policies becomes clear. He is able to throw some sops to his supporters, but most of his policies advance the objectives of the spiritual powers of evil. His supporters are disappointed because he has not drained the swamp, but he can't, because the spiritual powers of evil are at home in the swamp.

The following are some of the key spiritual forces at work in the US and the policies that reflect their influence.

  • Spirits of Violence, military force, explain:

     military expansion in Afghanistan.
     military expansion in Africa
     military men gain key roles in the Whitehouse.
     military threats against North Korea
     supporting war in Ukraine
     war in Syria.

  • Religious spirits, explain:

     alliance with leaders of religion-based state in Israel.
     alliance with leaders of religion-based state in Arabia.
     migration changes- the religious spirit hates different cultures because it fears their influence. The Holy Spirit embraces other cultures so that he can share the gospel with them (1 Cor 9:19-22).
     hatred of religion-based state in Iran.

  • Spirits of control, intimidation, deception, political control, explain:

     bullying North Korea
     additional powers of surveillance for intelligence agencies
     bullying political opponents
     bullying Cuba
     demanding to be in control of every situation
     hostility to Iran

  • Mammon, spirits of greed, ambition, prosperity, explain:

     tax cuts for wealthy and ambitious
     withdrawal from TPP, NATA
     withdrawal from Paris agreement
     removal of regulations on the debt sector

Saturday, July 15, 2017

Bizarre Behaviour

Looking from the outside, the behaviour of journalists, academics and politicians in the United States seems bizarre. I cannot understand how politicians, academics and journalist can make such a song and dance about American democracy, but then work so actively to undermine its results.

They all seem to have accepted the Russians “hacked” the US presidential election story. There is no evidence for this, and no one has explained how it actually happened. Hillary did enough to lose the election by running a weak campaign for the role she believed she was entitled to.

The best suggestion is that the Russians hacked the servers of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and released a stack of embarrassing emails. This was only a problem, because the emails showed that key democratic leaders were engaged in dodgy activities. You can hardly blame the Russians for their bad behaviour. If the DNC emails were boring administrative stuff, as they should have been, they would have been quickly forgotten.

The news media are not stupid, so they know there is nothing in it. The problem is that they hate Donald Trump more than they love the truth.

Before the election, they said that Trump was stupid and that he would not get elected. Trump bypassed them and proved them wrong, about the second point anyway. They like to think they have a big say in who wins the election. They seem to be angry that they were ignored and beaten by a man they do not like.

It seems that they hate Trump more than they love democracy. Trumps character may be a bit dodgy, but he was elected in a national election. None of the politicians, academics and media commentators seeking to undermine him were.

They say that they believe in democracy, but when they don’t like the outcome, they are happy to undermine it. That seems odd, but the elite knows best.

The worst thing about this situation is that the media and many politicians are spewing out hatred towards the Russian. I presume that they like the “Russia hacked the election” narrative, because if that had happened, Trump would not be legitimately elected, so they would be justified in seeking to throw him out.

They are pushing the hatred of Russia to justify their efforts to depose Trump. This is scary. The biggest risk to the word is not global warming, but a nuclear war between the Russians and they United States. A war that caused them to fire off their massive nuclear arsenals would be a huge disaster for the world.

I am old enough to remember the Cuban missile crisis. I remember how scary it was, and how relieved the world was when Khrushchev and Kennedy agreed to an uneasy peace deal. The world heaved a great sigh of relief. If McCain rather than Kennedy had been in the Whitehouse, we would still be in the midst of a nuclear winter.

The world does not need confrontation between the United States and Russia. One of the few good things about Donald Trump was that he wanted to stabilise the US relationship with Russia. Unfortunately, that has not happened. Instead the news media and many politicians are stirring tension between the two countries.

Russia is not a threat to the United States. It is massively weaker than the Soviet Union. Its economy is slightly smaller than Italy’s. Russian does not have enough troops to invade and control Eastern Europe, and it does not seem to want to.

So the Russian mania is hard to understand, and the media knows this. The problem is that they need hatred of Russia to support their attacks on Trump. If Russia is not a threat, then Russian collusion with Trump ceases to be a problem.

I can only assume that the media, and many politicians, hate Trump more than the care about the peace of the world. They seem to be willing to risk peace by stirring up hatred of the Russians to bring down Donald Trump.

From here, I see a nation freely submitting to a spirit of deception, by choosing to believe a lie. The sad thing is that the "Trump is Saviour" crowd is surrendering to the same spirit, by choosing a different lie.

The irony is that history shows that great nations and empires are not usually destroyed by an invading enemy power. They collapse from within.

Thursday, March 30, 2017

False Hope

I am amazed at the number of Christians who have put their faith in President Trump to rescue America.

Tiberius was a relatively good Caesar, and a great general. Jesus did not prophesy that when Paul got to Rome, Tiberius would come to faith and establish the kingdom.

Pontius Pilate was a relatively good procurator. Jesus did not prophesy that he would be surrounded by prayerful people and becomes a leader in the kingdom of God.

Jesus praised the faith of the centurion who wanted his servant healed, but he did not prophesy that the centurion would become procurator over Jerusalem and establish the Kingdom of God there.

I have no confidence into Donald Trump.

I have no confidence in the Republican party.

I have no confidence in the Democratic party.

My confidence is in the victory that Jesus established by dying on the cross, rising from the dead and ascending into heaven.

My confidence is in the Holy Spirit moving in power when small groups of people live and proclaim the gospel in Jesus name.

Friday, February 10, 2017

What?

When I realised that the US Presidential election was a contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, I thought that the nation must be under a curse to have such a terrible choice.

I now find the vehement and angry argument between Christians about Donald Trump equally disturbing. Some Christians are prophesying a great turn around for the nation, but I cannot see how the Holy Spirit can work in such a divided body.

Monday, February 06, 2017

Trump Sanctions

Amidst his flurry of activity, Donald Trump imposed additional economic sanctions on Iran. This is a rite of passage for any American politician wanting to be taken seriously as a foreign policy leader.

Since the Iranians gave the US a black eye in 1979/80, (the movie about Operation Eagles Claw has not been made yet), they have been the favourite victim for United States politicians looking for someone to bully. Their crime was to throw out the son of the dictator that the CIA and MI6 imposed upon them in place of a democratically elected government in 1953 (for the benefit of BP Oil). Many sanctions have been in place since that time.

Donald Trump imposed sanctions because the Iranians tested a ballistic missile (something they are entitled to do under international law) and Yemini Houthi rebels attacked a Saudi frigate. The Saudis have been bombing and wrecking Yemen with American support of the last couple of years. Trump does not realise that Houthis and Iranian Shia are about as different as Pentecostals and Anglicans.

The White House spokesperson mistakenly said that the Houthis had attacked an American ship. I suppose that was a reasonable mistake, because the US probably supplied the ship a long with $billions of military equipment they have supplied to the Saudis.

Trump confirmed that the Iranians are fostering terrorism. He does not seem to realise that Shia terrorism is not a problem these days. The real problem is the Sunni terrorism that has been sponsored and financed by the Saudis all over the world. Yet all American presidents have turned blind eye to this Saudi duplicity, because they love their oil and the armaments industry needs the sales.

The Iranians began developing the technology for missiles after the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. Back then, before his nasty phase, Saddam Hussein was an American ally. With American encouragement and reconnaissance support, he invaded Iran. Vastly outgunned, the Iranians engaged in a World War 1 style defence with massive casualties. Nearly a hundred thousand civilians died, in addition to the hundreds of thousands of military deaths.

Saddam Hussein launched chemical weapons against Iranian cities using ballistic missiles. Iran had no missiles to strike back against Iraqi cities.

Americans are scared of Iran, but the military spending is far greater among their neighbours in the Middle East.

Gulf Cooperation Council member countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar and their flunkies) spend approximately $98.5 billion on their militaries annually, compared to Iran’s $10.6 billion. Data released by the U.S. Congressional Research Service indicates that the GCC acquired $38.5 billion worth of new arms between 2004 and 2011, thirty-five times more than Iran’s acquisition of $1.1 billion for the same period. Similarly, data released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute indicates that the Gulf states have a massive lead over Iran in terms of spending on military munitions.

In addition to cutting-edge military wares, the Gulf countries enjoy access to superior American training, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance systems, and Command, Control, Communications, Computer, and Battle Management capabilities (C4I/BM).
Americas should be more concerned about their Middle Eastern clients, as they are armed to the teeth with weapons and technology supplied by the USA, the UK and France.

Iranians are spooked by this massive military build up by their traditional enemies. That is why they want better weapons.

The Iranians should not complain too much about Donald Trump’s feeble sanctions. Others have been far tougher. When Ronald Reagan was president in 1988, the US navy shot down an Iranian airliner killing 290 crew and passengers, many of the woman and children, by mistake of course.

Friday, November 18, 2016

Not a Revolution

Trump is not a revolution. The demographic that voted for Trump is aging and declining. Rather, the presidential election was a temporary setback for the slow-burning social revolution that has been underway for the last 20 years. It still controls most of the influencing institutions in the US. It will surge forward again, unless there something significant happens.

Likewise, the evangelical church will continue to decline in numbers and influence, unless something dramatic happens.

Tuesday, July 05, 2016

Same Well

The pro-Trump evangelicals and the stop-Trump folk drink from the same well: pres-idolatry. Christians in America should wake up and realise that the Political Power and Military Power are twin idols that the need to renounce. These idols will destroy America if they are given a free reign.

Saturday, March 05, 2016

Political Change

Donald Trump is the wrong man, but he seems to be nailing the concerns (perhaps unwittingly) of angry Americans who feel left out of the politics of recent decades. Robert W Merry explains why political commentators have failed to understand what is happening.

What these commentators and many others didn’t see was an underlying development in American society destined to send shock waves through the nation’s politics. It generated a rumbling within elements of the electorate that presaged an inevitable political volcano, which now is in eruption.

Much has been written about the so-called hollowing out of Middle America, the decline of the working class, the impact of the “culture wars” on ordinary Americans with traditional views, the loss of factory jobs, the fallout from unchecked immigration, the disintegration of traditional values among population groups that once personified those values. These are the losers of globalization, and their experiences in today’s global economy have been stark. Commentator David Frum, writing in the Atlantic, points out (based on figures from the Center for Immigration Studies) that since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, 1.5 million fewer native-born Americans are working than in November 2007. Meanwhile, during that same time span, some two million immigrants—legal and illegal—have gained jobs in the country. “All the net new jobs created since November 2007 have gone to immigrants,” writes Frum.

Indeed, as social scientist Charles Murray notes, for white working-class men in their thirties and forties, participation in the labor force dropped from 96 percent in 1968 to 79 percent last year. The percentage of these men who were married also dropped—to 52 percent last year from 86 percent in 1968. Out-of-wedlock births and the drug scene also take their toll among these people, once a solid source of civic stability. Writes Murray, “Consider how these trends have affected life in working-class communities for everyone, including those who are still playing by the old rules. They find themselves working and raising their families in neighborhoods where the old civic culture is gone—neighborhoods that are no longer friendly or pleasant or even safe.”

Meanwhile, the political and financial elites are doing just fine under the prevailing system. And they are not above evincing a certain contempt toward those who issue their plaintive protest at their reduced circumstances. As Michael Brendan Dougherty, writing in This Week, puts it, “The political left treats this as a made-up problem, a scapegoating by Applebee’s-eating, megachurch rubes who think they are losing their ‘jerbs.’” Murray adds that mainstream Americans are “fully aware of [the] condescension and contempt” the elites feel toward them and are “understandably irritated by it.”

Both Murray and Dougherty argue that American conservatism, as it has evolved since Barry Goldwater’s 1964 presidential quest, has little to offer these frustrated Americans. Conservatives tout free trade, but free trade is part of globalism, and working class Americans see globalism is a big part of their problem. Conservatives want to attack governmental entitlements, such as Medicare and Social Security, but those programs remain among the few federal programs that help Middle America. Conservative institutions such as the Wall Street Journal favor mass immigration, while Middle America regards immigration—for good reason—as a major economic threat, as well as a threat to some of its traditional values. Conservatives tend to be outraged by the cultural direction of the country on such issues as abortion and gay marriage, whereas working-class Americans are too financially strapped to put those issues at the forefront of their concerns. Conservatives have turned the GOP into a party of military adventurism, but the working class knows it will bear the brunt of fighting those wars. Conservatives habitually tout the legacy of Ronald Reagan and swear fealty to his memory, while Middle Americans want solutions to the problems of today, not those of a generation ago...

The traditional parties and their hardened ideological positions on issues have contributed mightily to the crisis of deadlock in American politics. The solution isn’t to work through the tired, old political structures to split the difference on issues, but to build new coalitions, based on new clusters of political thinking, that can break up the logjams and move the country in new directions.