Populist War

The tragedy in Norway was so terrible that it left most political commentators grasping for words. Most no longer believe in God, and even fewer believe in personal evil, so they have no explanation for such an horrific event. The word “evil” is ascribed to events they find appalling, but it no longer has any causal meaning. Their only way out was to suggest that Anders Brevik is mad. This is slightly comforting, as it means that he is different from the rest of us. The problem with this diagnosis is that it misses a change in the nature of warfare.

Prior to the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, any political or religious upstart who could scrape together and army could start a war. Since then, war has mostly been a monopoly of the state. This monopoly was reinforced during the nineteenth century by the industrialisation of war. The cost of war became so great, that only a government with the support its entire population could afford to start one.

Now, economies of scale and the globalisation of the weapons industry have significantly reduced the cost of entry for small players. In the future, we will see many different groups declaring war. Business groups protecting access to resources and splinter groups pushing their political and religious agendas will challenge the monopoly of the state in declaring war.

In a previous post, I suggested that war would become more personal, with governments taking out the leaders that they perceive to be a threat, rather than declaring war on the rest of the population. In Norway, we have seen the other side of the same trend, an individual person declaring war on a government and its leaders. In the future, we will see more of these personal attacks and declarations of war. This trend will contribute to the demise of the modern state.